Germany favored over Argentina

Germany’s national soccer team has done a tremendous job in front of its home fans at the 2006 World Cup. The Germans won each of their three Group A matches, outscoring the opposition 8-2. Then they blanked Sweden 2-0 in the knockout stage to reach the quarterfinals.

Their next opponents: Argentina. Arguably the second-best team in the world behind Brazil, the Argentines cruised through the “Group of Death” known as Group C, winning their first two games by a combined score of 8-1 before easing off the throttle and settling for a scoreless draw against the Netherlands. But their knockout stage encounter with Mexico was a surprising nailbiter. It took a beautiful goal by midfielder Maxi Rodriguez in the 98th minute to put away the plucky Mexicans 2-1.

That close shave seems to have been enough to tip the wagering scales in Germany’s favor. Die Nationalelf are actually slight favorites against the spread, –120 in a pick ‘em. Argentina is +100. The betting line including the draw result (after regulation and stoppage time) is dead even: +160 for either side winning, with the draw priced at +200.

Let’s repeat this: Germany is favored over Argentina. This would have been considered preposterous heading into the World Cup. The Germans are in a rebuilding phase; Bayern Munich general manager Uli Hoeness referred to the team as a “catastrophe” before the tournament. But Germany had the benefit of playing in a relatively weak Group A, then had the good fortune of playing a Swedish side that looked like a pale version of the team that made the quarterfinals at Euro 2004. The Albicelestes, meanwhile, scored six times against Serbia and Montenegro alone. They are playing exquisite soccer for the most part; Mexico truly was magnificent in defeat.

What, then, makes Germany the favorites in Friday’s quarterfinals? The Germans have played much better than advertised heading into the World Cup. Germany didn’t have to survive any qualification matches as the host nation. They held a number of friendlies, beating the likes of Luxembourg, Colombia (currently one of the weaker sisters in South America) and the United States, but drawing Japan and losing handily to Italy and Brazil. The team we’re seeing now, on the other hand, is performing much better on the biggest soccer stage in the world. Coach Jurgen Klinsmann’s decision to remake the young club into an attacking force has paid off in spades.

But let’s put on our solemn handicapping caps and think this one through. Argentina is an amazingly talented soccer team. They won the Olympic gold medal in 2004, and they beat their archrivals from Brazil 3-1 last year on the path to qualifying for the World Cup. You don’t have to be a soccer fanatic to know that there is something wrong with this odds picture. Are there any red flags coming from the Argentine side? There are no injuries of note stemming from their match with Mexico. Perhaps it can be chalked up to demographics. Don’t forget that it’s the public’s betting habits that shape the lines, not the bookmaker. It would be telling to see who is betting on Germany – there may be a rush of hometown money involved as fans get caught up in the excitement and throw their support behind the German eleven. If so, that’s what poker players call “dead money.”
Friday’s fixture is in Berlin at the Olympic Stadium. The action gets underway at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time.